China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), given its massive investments, especially in infrastructure, could be an important driver for economic growth in partner countries and globally. The challenge for those partner countries will be to align this and other financing more comprehensively with their national development priorities, and with achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

So large an inflow of investment, generally debt-financed, also poses risks to the development process of the recipient countries, risks which tend to be less analyzed and harder to assess. Moreover, the costs arising from risk mitigation, or the impacts that materialize, are often borne by groups who were not party to the transactions giving rise to these effects (e.g., local communities); and with considerable lag over longer timescales (e.g., in debt crises, or owing to social tensions stemming from heightened inequality or to environmental damage). Poor or asymmetrical information, short-term decision-making and divergent interests amongst stakeholders can all contribute to higher risks for the sustainable development of economy, society and environment.

With support from, UNDP China as the implementing agency for the project ‘Assessing and Managing Risk along the Belt and Road’ is coordinating the development of a series of discussion papers on risks to development linked with the BRI:

Environment and climate risks – Case studies on Myanmar (deep seaports and/or offshore oil concessions) and Pakistan (environmental linkages with CPEC, leveraging study currently under way by UNDP)

Social risks – Case Studies on Nepal (social/gender dynamics linked with large scale infrastructure projects, incl. potentially resettlement) and Zambia (labor conditions and rising inequalities)

Political Risks and Rule of Law – Case Studies on Kyrgyzstan challenges in largescale infrastructure procurement, judiciary capacity to processing complex/international disputes, geopolitical tensions) and Cambodia (debt and/or land tenure risks).

Security Risks – Case Studies on Ethiopia (long-term presence of Chinese businesses, which most likely have developed tested approaches to counter this risk) and Tajikistan (increasing security tensions and weak governance).